Explanation
Where the data is located: Consult the table below for a description of the economic indicator, the data presented, and an electronic link to the data. An explanation for how the graphs are constructed is below this table.Indicator | What is graphed | Why is this important | Source | Link | Data print | Data description |
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Gross Domestic Product | Annual change in the GDP | The gross domestic product (GDP) is the sum total of all goods and services produced by labor and property in the US.
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Bureau of Economic Analysis, Current-dollar and “real” GDP (Excel) | http://www.bea.gov/national/ | GDP (billions) | |
Disposable Personal Income | Annual change in personal disposable income | Disposable personal income is the personal income remaining after personal income taxes have been paid.
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Bureau of Economic Analysis | http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2012/08%20August/0812%20gdp-other%20nipa_series.pdf | Total personal disposable income in current dollars (billions) | |
US Stocks | Annual total return of large US stocks | Large US stocks include 500 of the largest US stocks in terms of stock market value (90 before 1957).
Total return equals the capital appreciation plus dividends. The stock market is a measure of investment performance and company performance. Read More |
Ibbotson Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation SBBI Yearbook, Table A-1 Compound Annual Return 1929-2011, available at public libraries;
for the current year, S&P 500 year-to-date return + the dividend yield. Read More |
Total return: Annual index fair market value increase (decrease) + dividends | ||
US Government Bonds | Annual total return of US government long term bonds | Long term US government bonds include bonds with an average maturity of 20-years.
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Ibbotson 2012 SBBI, Table A-6 Compound Annual Return, available at public libraries; for 2012:Vanguard Long Term Gov’t Bond (VGLT) year-to-date return. | Total return: Annual index fair market value increase (decrease) + interest | ||
Long Term Corporate Bonds | Annual total return of US corporate long term bonds | Long term corporate bonds are high quality US corporate bonds rated Aaa and Aa with a 20-year maturity. Their return depends on prevailing interest rates and, to a lesser extent, upon the credit quality of the companies the owe the bonds. Read More |
Ibbotson 2012 Stocks Bonds Bills and Inflation SBBI Yearbook Table A-5 compound annual return, available at public libraries; for the current year, Vanguard LT Corp Bond Index (VCLT) year to date return. | Total return: Annual index fair market value increase (decrease) + interest | ||
Money Supply | Annual growth in M2 money supply – cash, checking & savings accounts, CDs | The M2 money supply is the sum of all currency, cash, checking accounts (aka demand deposits), savings accounts and CDs (certificates of deposit).
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Federal Reserve Bank M2 money supply in December each year, seasonally adjusted, Series H6/H6_M2/M2.M, 1959-present.
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http://www.federalreserve.gov/
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Annual change in the seasonally adjusted December M-2 money supply – cash, checking & savings accounts, & CDs (see Note 2) | |
Unemployment | 12-month average unemployment rate | The unemployment rate measures the percentage of civilian workers who are actively looking but unable to find work, compiled by the US and state Labor Departments.
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US Dep’t of Labor Bureau of Labor statistics | http://data.bls.gov/
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12-month average unemployment rate (see Note 1) | |
Inflation | 12-month average inflation rate | Inflation measures the increase in price of goods and services over time.
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Bureau of Labor Statistics, CPI-U, US City Average, not seasonally adjusted. Click the dinosaur icon on the right to access the annual CPI change. | http://data.bls.gov/cpi/ | 12 month % change in CPI measured in December each year | |
Interest Rates | 12-month average federal funds rate | The federal funds rate is set by the Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
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Federal Reserve Bank | http://www.federalreserve.gov/
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12-month average federal funds rate | |
Federal Debt | Annual change in the US debt (see Note 4) | The federal debt is the sum total of deficits reported on line Line 46, Table 3.2, Federal Government Current Receipts & Expenditures.
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Bureau of Economic Analysis | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Federal debt (billions) | |
Federal Tax Receipts | Annual change in federal tax receipts | Federal tax receipts equal the amount reported on Line 2 of table 3.2, Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures, reported by the by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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Bur of Econ Analysis, Sec 3, Gov’t Cur Rec’ts & Exp, Table 3.2, Line 2 | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Federal Current Tax Receipts (billions) | |
Federal Spending | Annual change in federal spending | Federal spending equals the amount reported on Line 20 of table 3.2, Federal Government Current Receipts and Expenditures, reported by the by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In 2011: Read More
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Bur of Econ Anal, Sec 3 Gov’t Cur Rec’ts & Exp, Table 3.2, Line 20 | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Federal Current Expenditures (billions) | |
Defense Spending | Annual change in defense spending | Defense spending is the amount reported on Line 11, Table 3.9.5, Government Consumption Expenditures and Gross Investment, Bureau of Economic Analysis. | Bur of Econ Analysis Table 3.9.5, Gov’t Consumption Exp & Gross Invest, Line 11 | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Defense consumption & investment (billions) | |
Social Spending | Annual change in social spending | Social spending is reported on Line 1 of Table 3.12, Government Social Benefits, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Social benefits in 2011 included
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Bur of Econ Anal, Social spending – Table 3.12, Line 1 (billions) | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Government social spending (billions) | |
Social spending other than medical spending | Annual change in social spending excluding Medicare and Medicaid | Social spending is reported in Table 3.12, Government Social Benefits, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Social spending excluding Medicare and Medicaid is the total of Line 1, Government Social Benefits, minus Medicare, Line 6, and Medicaid, Line 33. Read More |
Bur of Econ Anal, Social spending – Table 3.12, Line 1 minus Medicare, Line 6, and Medicaid, Line 33 (billions) | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Government social spending less Medicare and Medicaid (billions) | |
Government medical spending | Annual change in Medicare and Medicaid spending | Government medical spending is reported in Table 3.12, Government Social Benefits, Bureau of Economic Analysis, as the total of Medicare, Line 6, and Medicaid, Line 33. | Bur of Econ Anal, gov’t medical spending – Table 3.12, Medicare, Line 6, and Medicaid, Line 33 (billions) | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Medicare and Medicaid spending (billions) | |
Federal discretionary spending | Annual change in US discretionary spending | Discretionary spending refers to federal government spending that the President and Congress choose to spend.
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Bur of Econ Anal, Sec 3 Gov’t Cur Rec’ts & Exp, Table 3.2, Line 21 – Consumption Expenditures | http://www.bea.gov/iTable/
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Federal discretionary spending (billions) | |
Federal Debt to GDP Ratio | Annual change in the Federal Debt / GDP ratio | The debt:GDP ratio compares the federal debt with the gross domestic product (GDP).
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US Treasury: total Federal Debt at Fiscal Year End; Bureau of Economic Analysis: GDP | Federal Debt to GDP Ratio | ||
Household median income | Annual change in the ratio of the mean over median income for all family households, 1948-2011 | The median income represents the midpoint value in the population metric consisting of family household income as reported by the US Census Bureau.
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US Census Bureau, Table F-5, Race and Hispanic Origin of Householder – Families by Median and Mean Income | http://www.census.gov/hhes/
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Median Income, All Races, Current Dollars, 1947 to 2011 | |
Household mean income | Annual change in the ratio of the mean over median income for all family households, 1948-2011 | The mean income represents the average family household income as reported by the US Census Bureau.
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US Census Bureau, Table F-5, Race and Hispanic Origin of Householder – Families by Median and Mean Income | http://www.census.gov/hhes/
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Mean Income, All Races, Current Dollars, 1947 to 2011 (Note 3) |
Note 1
Unemployment rate since 1947: US Bureau of Labor Standards Unemployment Rate 1947-2012
Unemployment rate before 1948: US Bureau of Labor Standards Unemployment Rate 1929-1946
Note 2
M2 money supply since 1959: Federal Reserve Bank M2 money supply in December each year, seasonally adjusted, Series H6/H6_M2/M2.M.
M2 money supply before 1959: A Monetary History of the US, 1867-1960, Friedman M. & Schwartz A., Nat’l Bur of Econ Res, 1963, pp. 712-722, col. 9.
M2 jumped nearly 25% from 1958 to 1959, far higher than in any other year except for 1943 at the height of World War II spending. This jump is likely due to differences in data collection methods between Milton Friedman and the Federal Reserve Bank. Therefore, the change from 1958 to 1959 change was normalized to equal the average percent change in M2 for the 5 years before 1959 (1954-1958) and for the 5 years after 1959 (1960-64). This decreased the annual percent change in M2 money supply for 1959 from 24.7% to 5.6%.
Note 3
In 1993 the mean over median premium rose 32.7% due to an increase in the maximum income levels that were reported. The revised earnings categories were: (1) maximum Social Security reported income rose from $29,999 to $49,999; (2) the Supplemental Security Income (SSI) maximum rose from $19,999 to $24,999; (3) maximum education assistance, child support, and alimony income decreased from $99,999 to $49,999; (4) maximum self employment income increased from $299,999 to $999,999; (5) wages, farm income, and income from other owned businesses increased tenfold from a maximum of $99,999 to a maximum of $999,999; and (6) maximum veterans benefits increased from $29,999 to $99,999.
Therefore, significantly higher mean income was reported in 1993 than in 1992, and this renders comparison between the 2 years suspect. See Table F-5, footnote 23. To avoid skewing the results, the mean over median change in 1993 was normalized to equal the average mean over median change for the 5 years before 1993 (1988-1992) and for the 5 years after 1993 (1994-1998, 10 total years). This lowered the 1993 increase in the mean over median income percentage change from 32.7% based on amounts reported in Table F-5, to .87%, the amount reported at www.PresidentialEconomics.com.
Note 4
Federal debt shown is the cumulative increase in the net federal borrowing reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, NIPA Table 3.2, Line 46. The federal government began running deficits in 1961 when it borrowed $4.3 billion. By 1968, the total federal debt was $36 billion. The inflation-adjusted annual growth in the debt from 1961 through 1968 exceeded 38%, four times larger than the 9.32% average annual debt growth rate of from 1969 through 2012.
The annual growth in the debt is therefore only calculated beginning in 1969. The 1968 debt of $36 billion inflated to current dollars equals $415 billion, only 3.5% of the current federal debt of $11.7 trillion. The 1961-68 debt growth is not graphed because the 38% annual debt growth rate is so high and the 1961-68 debt amount is small relative to the current debt. Including the 1961-68 debt growth rate in graphs at www.presidentialeconomics.com would render data comparisons suspect.
The US Treasury reports the federal debt at its website. This link includes intra-governmental debt that is owed by one US department to another for which there is an offsetting loan receivable, and that amount should not be included in federal debt growth calculations. Total federal debt including intra-governmental holdings on October 28, 2012, was $16.2 trillion, and 30% of this, or $4.8 trillion, was intra-governmental holdings. The actual federal debt is the difference between these 2 numbers, or $11.4 trillion.
The cumulative net federal borrowings reported at NIPA Table 3.2, Line 46 from 1961 through 2012 is $11.7 trillion, 3.3% higher than the $11.4 trillion debt reported by the US Treasury at its website. The annual debt borrowings reported on line 46 of NIPA Table 3.2 is used at www.presidentialeconomics.com because the NIPA tables permit the user to determine what caused the debt to increase each year by consulting the individual components of table 3.2 and the other NIPA tables reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at its website.
How the graphs are constructed:
An index is constructed to accumulate each year’s economic change. A spreadsheet accumulates the annual change in an economic indicator (such as Social Spending) to an index value that is set at 1.00 in the first year of the analysis period. The index is then multiplied each year by (1 ± the annual change). For instance, if the indicator grew 5.6% in 1981, the index at the beginning of 1981 would be 1.000 and the index would be 1.056 at the end of 1981; if the indicator grew 10% in 1982, the index would be 1.1616 at the end of 1982; and so on.
The compound, or average, rate of return is then calculated during each period measured by the formula:
- ((Ending index value / Beginning index value) ^ (1 / # years in analysis period) – 1)